Executive Summary Inflation is now well below the 40-year highs of 2022, when the central bank kicked off its aggressive rate-hiking campaign that pushed interest rates to a 23-year high. Tamping down inflation in just over two years without triggering a recession despite warnings from critics stating so, has been

Executive Summary  The economy grew at a healthy rate, with the 1st estimate coming in at 2.8%, slightly down from 3% in Q2, driven by strong consumer spending despite the weight of the still high interest rates.   Consumer spending, which accounts for 70% of the US economic activity, accelerated

Executive Summary  The US economy shows signs of resilience amidst mixed indicators. Q2 GDP growth was finalized at 3%, reflecting robust economic activity. However, inflation is cooling, although consumer behavior is evolving as individuals seek to manage rising costs.  In September, inflation showed slight drops influenced by domestic and global

Executive Summary  The US economy is continuing to progress positively yet there are continued mixed signals marked by the inflation rate, manufacturing index, wage growth and the evolving consumer behaviour.  The August report sees inflation trends being affected by domestic factors such as consumer spending, employment dynamics and the housing

Executive Summary  The U.S. economy has been navigating through a period of significant uncertainty, marked by fluctuating inflation rates, supply chain disruptions, and evolving consumer behavior. As of August 2024, inflation trends are being shaped by a combination of domestic factors—such as consumer spending, employment dynamics, and housing

Executive Summary  Recent data continues to signal that the US economy may be cooling. While the labor market has remained resilient, it has shown signs of weakness, with the number of job openings holding steady in June compared to May, but down 1.2 million versus last year. We may

Executive Summary  The current economic situation is confusing, to say the least, with some data pointing to an incoming recession while other economic indicators suggest a strong economy with no signs of slowing down. Inflation remains the single biggest concern on consumers’ minds, especially as price increases continue to impact

Executive Summary  Inflation is still not going away and we expect to see a continued upward trajectory in March, with the increases recorded across 70% of the relative importance categories. This is coupled with strong economic growth expected in Q1 (The Atlanta Federal Reserve forecasts GDP growth of 2.8%

Executive Summary  The US economy is booming. The Q4 GDP growth estimate saw a marginal downward revision to 3.2%, but the composition of US GDP is stronger given the fact that the revisions reflect inventory investment, upgrades to consumer spending, and government investment. In addition, the Q1 GDP outlook

Executive Summary  January saw an unexpectedly strong jobs report, with the US economy adding 353,000 new jobs, and we also saw consumer confidence rebound to the highest level since Truflation initiated its Consumer Sentiment Index 18 months ago. Economic growth for Q4 also came in well above market expectations

Executive Summary   The labor market continues to remain tight, which pushes up the price of services, and we don’t expect this trend to reverse any time soon. At the same time, consumer spending has remained strong across the festive months but is expected to drop in January along with

Executive Summary  The labor market remains tight, which continues to push up the price of services, and we don’t expect this trend to reverse any time soon. At the same time, consumer spending remained strong in October (though less so than the previous month) and confidence has seen a

Truflation: US Inflation Update  October 2023 At the latest Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting on 1 November, the Federal Reserve decided to keep interest rates unchanged at 5.25%-5.5% for the second month in a row. The market took this as an indication that the central bank